Wed 13th Aug
FX moves were minimal overnight in spite of some very weak European Economic sentiment data. US stocks chopped a bit lower in thin trade with continuing concern about the situations in both the Ukraine and Iraq and with no positive news to buoy risk appetite. There is a lot of high impact news due out in the next 24 hrs that traders will be watching closely and that may help to shape some market movement.
S&P500: presented a reasonable short trade during the US session:
Indices: the USD index continues to struggle at the 81.50 level. A failure to make a weekly close above this level, after peppering this region all week, would be rather bearish:
EURX: refusing to fall too far:
TC Signal: This E/U short signal isn’t doing too well, in spite of weak Euro data overnight. I have been stating over recent weeks that any E/U ‘short’ moves could be quite choppy due to the many layers of support below current price. The weekly Cloud chart shows these layers of support. This choppiness is what we continue to see:
E/U 4hr:
E/U weekly Cloud: the bottom of the weekly Cloud is the next layer of immediate support for the E/U:
Other FX: there is a lot of high impact data due out in the next 24 hrs that could trigger some FX movement: JPY Prelim GDP, CNY Industrial Production, GBP Inflation and Employment data and USD Retail Sales data.
Cable: is trading back above the 1.68 support and edging towards the upper region of the trading channel. I had warned earlier this week to watch the trend lines here for guidance and for a possible ‘Bull Flag’ formation. There is major GBP data tonight and I wouldn’t expect too much movement before this news:
Kiwi: still trading just below the daily support trend line. This seems to be trading more at the whim of the USD movement at the moment in the absence of much NZD news. Watch for reaction around Chinese and USD data today or, otherwise, there is NZD Retail Sales data scheduled for tomorrow:
A/U: is still holding above the recent daily support of the 0.9225 level. Today’s Chinese data could be a catalyst for some movement here though:
U/J: this pair isn’t moving too far as it is receiving very little guidance from the USD or from stocks. The U/J seems to be parked near the safety of the previously broken triangle trend line which is nestled between the monthly and weekly pivots. US Retail Sales data could get the USD index moving which, in turn, might help this pair to get going too:
Loonie: this is still chopping along just under the 50% fib level BUT, in doing so, also looks to be forming up in a 4 hr chart symmetrical triangle pattern. Momentum, via the ADX, is giving no clues here though. Any USD movement, following tonight’s USD Retail Sales data, might trigger a break here but there is no high impact CAD data until Friday:
Gold: this is doing very little as well and hanging near the support of the daily 200 EMA:
