When I woke to news this morning about the tariff update and impact this had on stocks the image above came to mind. It seems to me that it is not so much natural market forces at play but, rather, strings being pulled by some in what I suspect to be rather calculated moves. The tariff news sent US stocks, Oil and the US$ higher and Bonds, Gold and the Yen lower. There were some trend line breakouts and moves off levels that I had suggested watching but these were sharp moves in response to the news.
Data: Watch today with AUD Wage Price Index, GBP CPI and EUR GDP data.
Earnings: a few big names report on Wednesday:
DXY daily: the US$ rallied on the relaxed tariff news so watch 98 for any new make or break:
Trend line breakouts and TC signals:
Gold: rallied further by up to 290 pips before falling. Easing tariff tension and flows to stocks undermined price action here. The $1,500 is the level to watch for any new make or break:
Gold 4hr: gave 290 pips before sharply reversing:
Gold 4hr: watch $1,500 and fibs:
Oil 4hr: gave a trend line breakout for 230 pips on the tariff news. Watch $58 for any new make or break:
USD/JPY 4hr: gave a sharp move off 105 worth up to 160 pips:
GBP/JPY 4hr: gave a sharp move off 127 worth up to 150 pips:
Other Markets:
TLT daily: the 144 was a previous S/R level I had noted and price has reacted here overnight. Watch this level for any new make or break and, if price retreats, watch fib levels. Any continued risk-on type flow into stocks could help undermine Bonds:
TLT daily:
TLT daily + fibs:
ASX-200 4hr: watch for any upbeat sentiment here:
SPX 4hr: watch for any recovery above the key 2,950 level and for any trend line breakout:
EUR/USD 4hr: no risk-on flow here but lower with the stronger US$:
AUD/USD 4hr: the key 0.675 level held and the Aussie has enjoyed some risk-on flow on the tariff news. Watch for any, revised, trend line breakout; especially with today’s AUD Wages data:
AUD/JPY 4hr: price is back above 72 and enjoyed some AUD strength and JPY weakness flow on the tariff news. Watch for any breakout above 73; especially with today’s AUD Wages data:
NZD/USD 4hr: watch for any relief rally breakout:
GBP/USD 4hr: just chopping sideways with Brexit:
