It was over three years ago, in July 2014, when I charted the S&P500 and DJIA indices predicting bullish targets for their respective ascending triangle breakouts. Back then I noted a target for the S&P500 of around 2,500 and for the DJIA of around 21,000 although I was uncertain of the time frame for these moves. Those targets have now been reached though! Both indices have enjoyed a bullish run since the end of the Global Financial Crisis and I’m now looking out for any pause for them, or healthy pullback, given that trends don’t travel in straight lines forever.
S&P500: The bullish target of 2,500 has essentially been reached and note the bullish run since 2009. Trends do not travel in straight lines forever and, even if there is to be longer term bullish continuation, a pullback here would be rather healthy.
I note, with some serendipity, that the 50% Fibonacci level of the swing high move since the end of the GFC is down at the previous breakout level of 1,600. I consider the 1,600 to be the bottom of the trading range for the next stage of the S&P500 and so a test of this region would be healthy; especially if this test held. Thus, I am on the lookout for any pause on this index after this lengthy bullish run, or for even a pullback down to the 1,600 level, as part of a healthy corrective move on this index:
DJIA monthly: The bullish target of 21,000 has been exceeded here.
I note that the 50% Fibonacci level of the swing high move since the end of the GFC is back down at the previous breakout level of 14,000. As with the S&P500, I consider the 14,000 to be the bottom of the trading range for the next stage of the DJIA and so a test of this region would be healthy especially if this test held. Thus, I am on the lookout for any pause on this index after this lengthy bullish run, or for even a pullback down to the 14,000 level, as part of a healthy corrective move on this index:
Russell 2000 monthly: The US ‘small caps’ index has also completed a bullish ascending triangle breakout with the target of 1,420 being achieved here recently.
I note that the 50% Fibonacci level of the swing high move since the end of the GFC is back down at the previous breakout level of 880. As with the S&P500, I consider the 880 to be the bottom of the trading range for the next stage of the Russell 2000 and so a test of this region would be healthy especially if this test held. Thus, I am on the lookout for any pause on this index after this lengthy bullish run, or for even a pullback down to the 880 level, as part of a healthy corrective move on this index:
DAX monthly: The German Dax index has also completed a bullish ascending triangle breakout with the target of 13,000 being achieved here recently.
I note that the 50% Fibonacci level of the swing high move since the end of the GFC is back down at the previous breakout level of 8,300. As with the S&P500, I consider the 8.300 to be the bottom of the trading range for the next stage of the DAX and so a test of this region would be healthy especially if this test held. Thus, I am on the lookout for any pause on this index after this lengthy bullish run, or for even a pullback down to the 8,300 level, as part of a healthy corrective move on this index:
NASDAQ: there is a bullish ascending triangle breakout still in play on the NASDAQ Composite index but a bit of a pullback would not surprise here either:
NASDAQ Composite monthly:
NASDAQ Composite daily:
NASDAQ-100 monthly: there is a bullish ascending triangle breakout in play on the NASDAQ-100 index as well but this is rather new:
Summary: the S&P500, DJIA, Russell-2000 and German DAX indices have completed their monthly chart bullish ascending triangle breakouts, first described here over three years ago. I consider that the bullish breakout levels, from these monthly chart ascending triangles, will form up the bottom level of future trading ranges for these indices. I also note that these breakout levels correspond to the 50% Fibonacci of the swing high moves on each index.
These four indices have enjoyed a healthy bullish run since the end of the GFC and so I am on the lookout for any pause, or even pullback down to test these prior breakout levels, as part of an overall healthy corrective move.