Oil appears to have handed the trading ‘baton’ to Copper. Whereas Oil has helped to drag stocks lower of late the driving force behind most of yesterday’s action was the rout on Copper combined with the trigger event of the World Bank cutting their global growth forecast. This spooked commodity currencies, most commodities and stocks but, interestingly, Oil put in a bounce for the day. However, will all of this, the USD continues to trade just under the 92.50 resistance level and the E/U is little moved.
USDX: still just under 92.50 and in an ascending triangle. Poor US retail sales data triggered a dip but this loss was soon recouped:
EURX: is recovering of the day’s lows:
S&P500 daily Cloud: this is a tricky one as although the key psychological 2,000 was recovered by the close price action has the index in the Cloud and with a new bearish, albeit, neutral Tenkan/Kijun cross :
S&P500 weekly Cloud: a pull back to 1,900 though would only be a test of the weekly Cloud:
S&P500: this chart isn’t updated for today BUT the daily support trend line can be clearly seen and this kicks in at around 1,900 as well. All eyes are on the 2,000 level but, IMHO, the one to watch is 1,900:
VIX: the fear index is trading higher though and is up and out of the daily Cloud AND there has been a new bullish, albeit neutral too, T/K cross here. A warning for sure:
TC Signals: this TC signal and triangle break have delivered up to 150 pips.
U/J 4hr: keep an eye on the 117 level:
U/J: price has broken and held below the triangle and this suggest bearish continuation BUT the 117 level has held for the time being. The 110 level is a magnet here as it is the 61.8% fib and the daily 200 EMA. Watch for any move back below 117 for possible new shorts:
Other FX:
A/J: this gave a huge move yesterday after my post and after breaking 96 and the triangle but is price pulling back as I type. It has now made a daily close below the 96 level and triangle though which supports bearish continuation. Wait until after today’s AUD data for a possible new technical short trade:
E/U: still chopping around near 1.18:
E/J: is trading below the 140 with some Yen strength:
A/U: still chopping between 0.80 and 0.82. Watch for AUD employment data today:
A/U 4hr Cloud: this pattern is yet to see a decisive breakout:
Cable: higher but no new TC signal yet:
Kiwi: still channel bound and still above 0.77:
GBP/JPY 4hr: pulling back to test 179 S/R level:
G/J daily: price has bounced up off the 61.8% fib though already:
G/J daily Cloud: price is now below the daily Cloud however which support bearish continuation:
Loonie: this has slowed as the USD stalls and Oil has bounced:
Swissie: ‘Double Top’ in progress here? Do note though that this has given over 300 pips since the bullish Cup ‘n’ Handle breakout!
EUR/GBP: this is coming into focus as price drifts down to major 0.77 support. The monthly chart reveals the importance of the 0.77 level. Any weekly close below 0.77 would be bearish and suggest the start of a possible 2,000 pip triangle breakdown:
E/G 4hr:
E/G monthly:
hi ! I was not daring to take U/J short even if triangle brakeout happened.Instead longed it at channel bottom and closed now for some 50 pips. ! Not a good trade but some solace..
Good for you then water!
Trading U/J whilst in daily Cloud does pose problems.
I’m thinking I’m best waiting for my own TC signals at the moment.