Both FX indices have closed with indecision weekly candles in a week that was shaped by a fair bit of turmoil. Turmoil coming from the US Presidential debate, the ongoing US stimulus debate, the US President’s Covid-19 diagnosis and, finally, a mixed US jobs report. Given all of this, it was rather surprising that there was not a significant flight to safety move into the US$. Both FX indices are range-bound in 4hr chart triangles so watch trend lines for any new momentum-based breakout.

NB: I am away for this long weekend so the next update will be posted by Monday.

US NFP: weaker than expected jobs and wages data. I’m reading the headline unemployment figure only fell due to lack of labor market participation:

DXY

DXY weekly: the index closed with a bearish-coloured indecision-style Inside weekly candle and back below the 10-ytr trend line. I have to admit I was rather surprised to wake to find the index so low. I had thought there would be a decent flight to safety shift here given the situation with the US President:

DXY daily: revised trend lines and still in the daily Cloud for now:

DXY 4hr: in the 4hr Cloud too so watch for any momentum-based trend line breakout:

EURX

EURX weekly: a bullish-coloured Spinning Top and Inside candle with both reflecting indecision:

EURX daily: revised trend lines here but still in the daily Cloud and holding above the 12-yr trend line:

EURX 4hr: in the 4hr Cloud here too so watch for any momentum-based trend line breakout:

FX Index Alignment: the FX Indices are not aligned at the moment.

• EURX: is below the 4hr Cloud but in the daily Cloud so currently not aligned and prone for potential choppy EUR$ price action.
• USDX: is in the 4hr Cloud and in the daily Cloud so currently not aligned and prone for potential choppy USD$ price action.

Calendar: the main risk events to be monitored include the US stimulus debate and the US President’s health status.