Wed 18th June ( 6.45 am)
US Stocks made small gains overnight ahead of the important FOMC announcement whereas the mood has been more cautious with FX.
Indices:The USDX has bounced, yet again, off the support offered by the weekly 200 EMA. The EURX is looking a bit vulnerable:
EURX:
S&P500: higher but choppy:
TC Signals:
GBP/AUD: this signal has now delivered up to 180 pips.Price looks set to close outside of the trading channel which is bullish and suggest continuation:
E/U: I said I would not take this signal UNLESS price closed above the 4hr Cloud. This did not eventuate and the signal has now closed off. I’m recording it as a loss of -50 though:
E/U 4hr:
E/U 4 hr Cloud: no move back above the Cloud yet:
U/J: there has been a new weak TC signal but I’m not taking this just now and for two reasons:
- I’m waiting now until after FOMC as this event has the potential to cause big movements with the USD.
- Price is below the 4hr and daily Ichimoku Cloud (see below). This pair is heavily traded by Japanese traders and the majority of these traders focus on the Ichimoku indicator. This fact was reinforced to me again at an Ichimoku seminar I attended on Monday. I am quite sure they won’t be taking new ‘longs’ with price below the 4hr and daily Cloud AND with FOMC still to come.
I will consider chasing this TC signal after FOMC AND if there is bullish continuation.
U/J 4hr: weak new TC signal:
U/J 4 hr Cloud: price is below the Cloud and the transition is to bearish:
U/J daily Cloud: price is below the daily Cloud:
Other FX:
E/J: in a holding pattern:
A/U: down BUT holding up quite well considering the jawboning it got yesterday from the RBA minutes. I thought it might fall back to the support of the monthly pivot and 61.8% fib and it still may BUT at the moment it is getting some support from the top of the daily Cloud:
A/U 4hr:
A/U daily Cloud:
A/J: a bullish ascending triangle forming up:
Cable: waiting patiently under the 1.7 ahead of FOMC. Holding up well despite a batch of weaker than expected GBP data:
Kiwi: waiting as well and check out those Bollinger bands.
GBP/JPY: might be getting a bit ahead of itself but being rather bullish as it holds above the 173:
AUD/NZD: this looks certain to test the 1.075 S/R level. Some traders will take a long from there:
Silver: has paused ahead of FOMC but still holding out from the bullish trend line break:
Gold: holding up for now as well:
