A risk-off shift started during yesterday’s Asian session with the report of one new Covid case in New Zealand. This news triggered a sell-off across the XJO, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and AUD/JPY which only intensified after the release of weaker than expected US Retail Sales. The big question, of course, is whether this is the start of a broader correction following a lengthy bullish run for stocks or just a temporary blip? No one can know for sure but it is times like these that perspective and good risk management are needed. The RBNZ rate update is today so watch to see how this impacts the weakened Kiwi.
Data:
Earnings:
DXY weekly: higher with the risk-off shift BUT momentum is still edging lower so caution is needed!
Trend line breakouts:
NZD/USD: New Zealand went into a national lock down after one case and this triggered a sell-off during the Asian session.
NZD/USD 4hr: a sharp drop BUT watch 0.69 for any new make or break:
NZD/USD 30 min: most of the move evolved during the Asian session.
AUD/JPY 4hr: this sell-off has continued for 140 pips BUT watch the weekly 200 EMA for any new make or break:
AUD/USD:
AUD/USD 4hr: this sell-off has given up to 80 pips BUT watch 0.72 for any new make or break:
AUD/USD 30 min: the break of 0.73 during the European session did most of the damage here:
GBP/USD:
GBP/USD 4hr: this sell-off has given up to 100 pips BUT watch the 18-month TL and 1.37 level for any new make or break:
GBP/USD 30 min: an Asian b/o trade would have worked well here:
GBP/JPY 4hr: this sell-off has continued for 250 pips BUT watch the 61.8% Fibonacci for any new make or break:
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD 4hr: this sell-off has given up to 50 pips BUT watch 1.17 for any new make or break:
EUR/USD 30 min: a choppy breakout move. An Asian b/o trade would have been whipped out here:
S&P500 4hr: watch for any push back to the 18-month TL:
ASX-200 4hr: ditto:
Other markets:
Gold 4hr: watch for any new TL b/o:
USD/JPY 4hr: watch for any new TL b/o:
