The rally with the USD post FOMC has assisted the Bear Flag patterns still building on the E/U, A/U and Kiwi. However all three flag patterns have major support levels below current price and I would still prefer to see a breach of these levels before being convinced that these flags are underway.
E/U: the Flag trend line appears to have been broken but there are a couple of layers of support below current price: the 1.26 and the 1.25. Whilst some shorter term traders might scalp pips in this region I would prefer to see a close and hold below 1.25 to confirm the Bear Flag:
A/U: the flag trend line has not been broken here yet but, even so, I’d still prefer to see a break and hold below the 0.865 for confirmation of any Bear Flag:
Kiwi: as for the E/U, the Flag trend line appears to have been broken but I would prefer to see a close and hold below 0.77 for confirmation of any Bear Flag:
USD index: the USD is currently facing its own hurdles with a major trend line and ‘Double Top’ ahead of current price. Any successful bullish break and hold above these levels though would help to develop the Bear Flags on the the E/U, A/U and Kiwi.
Summary: FOMC triggered a bullish move on the USD but it still faces major resistance. The outcome for the USD will help to define the Bear Flags on the E/U, A/U and Kiwi:
- a bullish USD breakout will support the Bear Flags.
- failure of the USD to break up through this resistance might undermine the Bear Flags.