At the end of last year I posted how I was watching for triangle breakouts on both the XJO (S&P ASX 200) and the XAO (All Ordinaries) indices. This article can be found through this link. Price action on both indices is still consolidating within these triangles for the time being but one trading commentator has called this the yearly low for the Aussie market and so I thought I check the charts again.
Clifford Bennett is a well know market commentator and in his latest video update has boldly called current activity as the market low for Aussie and global stocks and is suggesting prices will rally from here.
I am thinking along the same lines but will be waiting for confirmation by way of a trend line breakout from these triangle patterns. Any bullish triangle breakout though would suggest to me that both indices are headed to the 6,000 region as this is the next major S/R region by way of being the 78.6% fib level of the GFC bear move:
XJO (S&P/ASX 200) weekly:
XAO ( All Ordinaries) weekly:
The markets are trading higher today and helped by the positive lead from Wall St and the overnight uptick with Oil. Elliott Wave analysis suggests a bounce for Oil and this may well evolve if the USD pauses or reverses at all:
CL: Oil weekly:
In my view triangle brakeout will be downwards. Reasons :
1). No much room with BOJ for further easing as debt exceeds 200% of gdp by now
2) Even with QE no guarantee for eurozone improvement which will invite fierce opposition from Germany to continue QE
3) Asset Bubble already in formation with US stocks. With no hike in cash rate will add to its burst any time.
4)Sliding oil prices will continue atleast for one year which is able to cause havoc in markets
So stocks might have found a top by now
That’s the beauty of triangles.
They work either way so you just follow the lead.