Fri 13th ( 4.15 pm)

Yen: the Yen has weakened and we are seeing this flow through to the Yen pairs.

TC Signal: The E/J signal has now closed off:

Fri 13th ( 1.10 pm)

GBP/AUD: I had taken my eye off this pair but gave it another look today in light of the bug GBP moves. I see a new TC signal came through off the 11 am candle but hasn’t moved too far. There may be another trading channel break looming here if the GBP keeps powering along:

G/A 4hr:

G/A daily:

G/A weekly:

Fri 13th ( 11.25 am)

Kiwi: this rally has stalled a bit and it is worth noting that a 61.8% fib pull back of this recent bull move would bring price to back down near the 0.85 S/R level:

GBP/JPY: this triggered a new TC signal off my 11 am candle BUT this, also, isn’t valid. This is happening a lot of late! Regardless, I’m preferring to wait for a break and hold above the 173 before getting interested in any new ‘long’ here. I’m also waiting until after today’s CNY and JPY news. I’ve also just noticed though that the 4hr chart has a bit of a bullish ‘inverse H&S’ pattern look to it. The ‘neck line’ appears to be the monthly 200 EMA. Lot’s happening here on the GBP/JPY:

Fri 13th ( 7.30 am)

The NZD provided the excitement yesterday morning with a rally following a rate hike and today it has been the GBPs turn given just a whiff of possible rate hike news. The Cable has broken out of a bullish wedge pattern and the GBP/JPY may try to breakout of its triangle pattern. More on these two later.

US stocks continued lower and this 30 min chart shows a great short trade off the S&P500 that was fairly predictable following yesterday’s bearish engulfing S&P500 candle, growing Iraq concern and weak US sales and  employment data:

S&P500: I am still expecting a test of the 1,900 at a minimum. I do wonder though whether the Iraq situation might trigger a bigger pull back:

Indices: the weak US data has stopped the USD in its tracks. The EURX is weaker too:

USDX:

EURX:

Silver and Gold: Silver and Gold have both rallied with the weaker USD and possibly due to Iraq jitters. This has triggered TC signals BUT neither signal is valid due to the large trigger candle falling out of the Bollinger band:

Silver: has broken up through a major bear trend line of a monthly chart triangle pattern:

Silver 4hr:

Silver weekly:

Gold: continues higher and is conforming to the bullish ‘Inverse H&S’:

Gold 4 hr:

Gold weekly:

TC Signal: the E/J signal is still open and has yielded a maximum of 150 pips:

Other FX: there is high impact data out of Japan and China during today’s Asian session and traders need to be mindful of these items:

E/U: doing little but managing to hold above major support from the monthly chart’s triangle trend line:

A/U: has closed above the 0.94 level. A TC signal came off my 3 am candle but is not valid as outside the Bollinger band:

A/U daily Cloud: the bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross is still open here but the T/K lines are still flat:

A/J: still loitering under the 96 level. Watch this after BoJ rate news for any reaction. Any break and hold above the 96 level would mean the A/J is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly time frames which would be a rather bullish signal:

Cable: this took off this morning after it was suggested that rates could rise sooner than expected.There had already been a bullish descending wedge breakout on the 4 hr chart prior to this news but there has now been a clear breakout on the daily chart too:

G/U 4hr:

G/U daily:

U/J: is lower with weaker stocks and a weaker USD:

Kiwi: still drifting higher. The 0.88 resistance level is back in the 4hr frame again:

Kiwi 4 hr:

Kiwi monthly: the bullish ascending triangle still evolving:

GBP/JPY: this is getting more interesting again. The GBP strength is lifting this pair back up to near the upper trend line of the weekly/monthly chart triangle pattern. This trend line is also near the 173 S/R level:

G/J 4hr:

G/J daily:

G/J weekly:

I have discussed this potential triangle breakout and targets in previous posts.The triangle is about 1000 pips in height and, thus, the theory of triangle breakouts would suggest that the predicted move from any break and hold above the trend line would be about 1000 pips. This would take price, conveniently, up to the region of the 50 % fib level near 184. The 61.8% fib is up at the 200 area: 

G/J monthly:

The GBP/JPY is now also trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly time frames which is bullish. The BoJ interest rate news today may get this pair moving some more. Traders would be well advised to watch for any triangle breakout and, also, for any close and hold above the 173 level on this pair.

AUD/NZD: Has closed below the 1.09 support:

EUR/AUD: still holding within the trading channel: